Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 63

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Arizona Cardinals 30

(3:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.72 EP
78% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model