Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to ARI 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 34 for 2 yards (58-C.Littleton). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model