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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Arizona Cardinals 44

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass incomplete short left to 83-B.Quick (41-M.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.05 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model