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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to NYJ 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 21 for 1 yard (50-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model