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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 10

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(7:41) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left guard to BUF 11 for -1 yards (99-M.Dareus; 52-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +3.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.51 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model