4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (Shotgun) 7-C.Jones pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Watkins (27-D.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.59 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP