Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 79

New York Jets 20 – Buffalo Bills 3

(10:14) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to BUF 26, Center-46-T.Purdum. 15-B.Tate to BUF 27 for 1 yard (50-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.93 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model