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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NYJ 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 28 for 2 yards (65-G.Sanborn; 52-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.03 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model