Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 84

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

(6:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to NYJ 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 42 for 4 yards (56-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.85 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 84, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model