Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

(14:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NYJ 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 25 for -2 yards (57-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.18 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model