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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to MIN 22, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at CHI 42 for 36 yards (53-J.Timu).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model