4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 37

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short left to 81-C.Meredith pushed ob at MIN 29 for 8 yards (24-C.Munnerlyn). MIN-29-X.Rhodes was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.73 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model