Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to CHI 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 45-B.Addison MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 24, RECOVERED by MIN-27-J.Kearse at CHI 21. 27-J.Kearse to CHI 21 for no gain (80-M.Pruitt). The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.30 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model