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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 71

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 38

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 9 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.18 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model