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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 38 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 13-S.Hill pass incomplete short right to 21-J.McKinnon [96-A.Hicks].

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model