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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 17 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 10-J.Schum punts 53 yards to DET 5, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-25-M.Evans.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model