Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 69

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 17

(14:50) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to GB 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 19 for no gain (29-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.30 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model