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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 36

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model