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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 83

Green Bay Packers 31 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(:28) 10-J.Schum punts 18 yards to GB 35, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -1.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 41, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model