Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(6:26) 10-J.Schum punts 44 yards to DET 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.06 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model