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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 27

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.02 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model