4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to HOU 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.28 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model