Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 97

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

(2:43) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to TEN 48, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to HOU 36 for 16 yards (33-A.Hunt).

The Three Options

GO -4.12 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.84 EP
71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 97, worth -6.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model