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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to HOU 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.60 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model