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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 4

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:39) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-54-A.Williamson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model