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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 21 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model