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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model