Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 73

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 24

(:23) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short middle to 15-W.Fuller (98-B.Orakpo).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.59 EP
73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -1.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP