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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 80

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to TEN 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to HOU 46 for 18 yards (43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.45 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP