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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to HOU 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.54 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model