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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 83

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 41 for 7 yards (43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model