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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to HOU 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 19 for 7 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model