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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 61

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-T.Savage up the middle to HOU 41 for 2 yards (99-J.Casey). HOU-3-T.Savage was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model