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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to ATL 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 32 for 15 yards (37-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model