Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 21

(12:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to ATL 16, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 24 for 8 yards (54-N.Stupar; 97-S.Barrington).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.03 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model