Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 35 – New Orleans Saints 13

(13:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to NO 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model