Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 13 – Atlanta Falcons 35

(10:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ATL 1, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-87-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.96 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model