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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 38 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 30 yards to NO 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.49 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP