Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 38 – New Orleans Saints 19

(10:06) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to NO 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 87-T.Lewis to NO 32 for 6 yards (91-C.Upshaw).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.10 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 83, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model