Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 38 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 87-T.Lewis to NO 35 for 4 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on ATL-91-C.Upshaw, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.10 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model