4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 25 – Atlanta Falcons 38

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 22-M.Ingram right end to ATL 17 for 9 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP