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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 82-C.Fleener to ATL 5 for 25 yards (23-R.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.90 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model