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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.03 EP