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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 7-M.King punts 63 yards to DEN 5, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 16 for 11 yards (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP