4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 7-M.King punts 64 yards to DEN 3, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 11 for 8 yards (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP