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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to DEN 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 16 for 6 yards (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP