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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 77

Denver Broncos 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to LV 28, Center-45-T.Gafford. 30-J.Richard to LV 37 for 9 yards (49-Q.Gause). DEN-50-Z.Anderson was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model