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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.90 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model