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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 80

Denver Broncos 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 37, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model