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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 30

Denver Broncos 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.26 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP